Travel industry imagines a world with far fewer flights

The Guardian online has a very interesting article summarising the state of play with airline emissions and chances for reductions in the future from a UK perspective. Main takeaways are:

• “US commercial airlines alone burn about 50 million gallons of kerosene (the main aviation fuel) every day.”
• “A fuel tax on domestic [UK] flights that increased the price of air travel by 50% could cut carbon emissions by one million tonnes a year.”
• “The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Group, an industry consortium, wants planes to use 600 million gallons of biofuel a year by 2015.”

How will it achieve that?

• “An algal pond the size of Belgium could meet all aviation’s current fuel needs” so it is favoured over “”a field the size of the EU” to grow that much from plant-based biofuels.”

However:

There’s still a big climate problem even if you use algal biofuel instead of kerosene to cut the CO2, he says. The ‘radiative forcing’ effect from emissions such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) and water vapour (contrails) at high altitudes causes at least half a plane’s climate change impact, and would remain largely unaffected by a move to biofuels. Even if these succeeded in cutting aviation’s climate impact by as much as 30%, as their proponents hope, he adds, “a return to aviation growth could negate that in just five years. Biofuels do not change the game”, he concludes. “The industry will have to make many more fundamental changes if it is to grow sustainably.”

The article then looks at airships, flying wings, solar planes, more efficient air traffic management, even nuclear planes, all with either low efficiencies and/or large lead in times.

The article concludes that its hard to see how our current levels of flying can be sustained if carbon emissions are to be reduced.

Although the article doesnt deal in any depth with what a world might look like with much less air travel, it contains an interesting link to an article which discusses a study of how flying might look in 2023. Entitled “Tourism 2023. Four scenarios, a vision and a strategy for UK outbound travel and tourism” the full study is a fascinating read, and includes examples of holidays that might be taken under each scenario. For instance, under the scenario which contemplates a spike in oil prices as well as climate change:

The solo traveller

The invitation for the wedding arrived 16 months early. Anna was excited, and absolutely desperate to go to her brother’s big day. But the only problem is that he moved to Australia ten years ago. She definitely won’t be able to afford an airfare so she’s arranged with her employer to roll two years holiday into one and take a three-month break to make the journey overland. Anna’s booked through one of the many online integrated travel portals, and paid her supermarket in advance for the entire trip. Most of her accommodation along the way will be on the exciting sleeper trains, coaches and ships that provide surprisingly decent accommodation while on the move. She’s arranged accommodation in advance in the places she’ll be stopping on the way – all offered for free through a popular social networking site. Important cost savings for that wedding present!

Importantly, the study is supported by major UK aviation stakeholders including British Airways and Thomas Cook.

This article contains this summary which I like:

By 2023, the Easyjet weekend may well be a thing of the past. An increasingly plausible scenario is that of the long vacation – a couple of months at least, but only every couple of years. More people want extended trips like these to be part of life’s rhythm, and companies are beginning to find that supporting staff to do so improves motivation and makes them more likely to stick around. Missing out on a few mini breaks in order to justify that longer haul makes sense in carbon budget terms, too.

And the destinations love it. Hoteliers and resort managers find it easier to secure bookings for weeks at a stretch; less turnover is less work.

So, you have breakfast in bed, load the latest Booker shortlist or sci-fi trilogy onto your iRead, and board the ‘comfycarriage’ of the high speed train to Tirana. Your ticket lets you stop off at any point on the way for as long as you please, so you’re hoping to have a few days with old friends in Munich en route. Or, with all that time on your hands, you decide to go further afield. You pack your laptop and camera and drift over the Atlantic on a sleek, silent airship. You spend hours gazing at the 360° views, catch up with friends in the virtual chat booth, dine well, sleep well, and use up just 20% of your carbon budget for the year.

I hope my kids get to enjoy this. For their sake, we need to reduce unnecessary jet travel asap, or there is a good chance we dont get there at all.